With the UK general election taking place earlier this Summer – and the November US presidential election on the horizon – 2024 is shaping up to be a record breaking year for elections. Over 100 ballot votes are taking place this year across 64 countries. However, around the globe, the rising threat of misinformation and disinformation is putting both public confidence in, and the integrity of, these elections at risk.
The 2020 US election and the 2019 UK election have vividly illustrated how misinformation can create a sharp divide public opinion and heighten social tensions. The elections in early 2024, including the Indian general election and the European Parliament election, demonstrate that misinformation remains a persistent issue.
As countries around the world gear up for their upcoming elections, the risk of misinformation influencing outcomes is a key concern, emphasising the need for vigilance and proactive measures to safeguard the integrity of the electoral process.
Misinformation and disinformation in election history
In order to properly protect the electoral process, it’s important to understand how intentional misinformation and disinformation have affected previous elections.
UK general election (2019)
Misinformation and disinformation played pivotal roles in the 2019 UK general election, prompting action from fact checking organisations like Full Fact, which published 110+ fact checks to address the deluge of false claims during the campaign. The Conservative Party drew significant backlash for its tactics, which included a rebranding of its X account to ‘FactCheckUK’ during a live televised debate – an act that was widely condemned as both deceptive and deliberately misleading.
Brexit, already a contentious issue, was also the target of numerous misinformation and disinformation campaigns during the election. Unverified and often false claims about economic impacts, border control, the migrant crisis and trade agreements further complicated the Brexit discourse and contributed to a deeply divided electorate. The spread of misinformation biassed public perception and raised serious concerns about its lasting effects on democratic processes, with 77% of people stating that truthfulness in UK politics had declined since the 2017 general election, per Full Fact.
US presidential election (2020)
During the 2020 presidential elections, the US faced significant challenges in maintaining legitimacy and integrity due to widespread misinformation and disinformation campaigns. False claims regarding the origins and treatments of COVID-19, as well as the illegitimacy of mail-in ballots, impacted the election discourse heavily. Competing narratives arose, with some supporting mask-wearing and mail-in voting, while others arguing against masks and alleging voter fraud. Russia-affiliated actors were instrumental in spreading false information.
Reports indicated that the Wagner Group hired workers in Mexico to disseminate divisive messages and misinformation online ahead of the elections. Russia also targeted the US presidential elections using social media platforms such as Gettr, Parler and Truth Social to spread political messages, including voter fraud allegations.
Aptly named ‘supersharers’ were pivotal in spreading misinformation and disinformation, with a sample of 2,107 supersharers found responsible for spreading 80% of content from fake news sites during the 2020 US presidential election, in a study by Science Magazine researchers.
2024 electoral disinformation campaigns
While many elections are still pending this year, it is important to acknowledge the influence of key electoral events that have already occurred, notably in India and the European Parliament. These concluded elections, tainted by substantial misinformation and disinformation campaigns, have significant repercussions on the political landscape.
India general election
The widespread use of WhatsApp led to rampant misinformation and disinformation in India’s general elections in the second quarter of 2024. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) managed an extensive network of WhatsApp groups to influence voters with campaign messaging and propaganda.
Researchers from Rest of World estimate that the BJP controls at least 5 million WhatsApp groups across India, allowing rapid dissemination of information from Delhi to any location within 12 minutes. Specifically, the BJP used WhatsApp to amplify misinformation designed to inflame religious and ethnic tensions. Bad actors also disseminated incorrect information about election dates, polling locations and voter ID requirements to undermine participation by segments of the population. Independent hacktivists also targeted the elections, with Anonymous Bangladesh, Morocco Black Cyber Army and Anon Black Flag Indonesia among the groups seeking to exploit geopolitical narratives and tensions to influence the outcome.
European Parliamentary elections
The European Parliament elections were another key target of sophisticated misinformation and disinformation campaigns. Russia sought to sway public opinion and fuel discord among European Union (EU) countries. The Pravda Russian disinformation network, active since November 2023, targeted 19 EU countries, along with multiple non-EU nations and countries outside of Europe, including Norway, Moldova, Japan and Taiwan.
Leveraging Russian state-owned or controlled media such as Lenta, Tass and Tsargrad, as well as Russian and pro-Russian Telegram accounts, Pravda websites disseminate pro-Russian content.
Additionally, a related Russia-based disinformation network, named Portal Kombat – comprising 193 fake news websites targeting Ukraine, Poland, France and Germany among other countries – was uncovered by Vignium researchers. This campaign aimed to influence the European Parliament elections by spreading false information, including claims about French soldiers operating in Ukraine, pro-Ukraine German politicians being Nazis and Western elites supporting a global dictatorship intent on waging war with Russia.
These efforts highlight the extensive and malicious strategies employed to manipulate public opinion and undermine democratic processes across multiple nations.
2024 emerging threats
With a series of crucial elections set to unfold, past evidence suggests that misinformation and disinformation campaigns will again try to sway public opinion. Looking ahead, the 2024 US presidential elections are poised to face even more sophisticated disinformation tactics. The advent of deepfake technology and advanced AI-generated content poses new challenges for ensuring truthful political discourse.
United States presidential election
The 2024 US presidential election has already faced significant misinformation and disinformation, with thousands of accounts circulating various false claims about election fraud.
Nearly one-third of US citizens believe the 2020 Presidential election was fraudulent, per research from Monmouth University – a narrative actively promoted by Donald Trump to support his candidacy. Unfounded allegations like these are dangerous as they legitimise conspiracy theories and false claims, establishing a foothold for these beliefs in mainstream politics.
AI tools are anticipated to intensify the spread of misinformation and disinformation in the upcoming elections, making it even more challenging to discern fact from fiction. In one instance, voters in New Hampshire were targeted by an audio deepfake impersonating Joe Biden during his campaign, urging them not to vote.
Despite the ban on AI-generated robocalls by the Federal Communications Commission in February 2024, AI’s influence on misinformation remains formidable. Various accounts have circulated AI-generated images, such as those showing Joe Biden in a military uniform or Donald Trump being arrested, with minimal moderation by social media platforms. These developments underscore the growing challenge of combating AI-driven disinformation and its potential to mislead voters and distort democratic processes.
Geopolitical issues, and the misinformation and disinformation surrounding them, are also likely to affect upcoming elections significantly.
Mitigating misinformation and disinformation in elections
Misinformation and disinformation show no signs of abating anytime soon, but several countries, including Australia, Argentina and Canada are exploring new strategies to combat their effects. Argentina’s National Electoral Chamber (CNE) collaborated with Meta before the 2023 general elections to enhance transparency in political campaigns on their platforms. The CNE also partnered with WhatsApp to develop a chatbot that provided accurate election information, proactively countering misinformation by giving voters access to reliable information.
Ahead of the 2019 federal election, Canada put in place a Social Media Monitoring Unit, and in 2023, the Australian Electoral Commission ran its ‘Stop and Consider’ campaign to reduce election-related disinformation. Notably, the ‘Stop and Consider’ campaign used YouTube and other social media channels to address electoral information almost in real time.
Although recent election strategies in Australia, Canada and Argentina show potential in curbing the spread of misinformation and disinformation, it is clear from recent elections that these issues continue to affect the electoral landscape.
The rapid evolution of AI and the ongoing challenges faced by social media platforms in managing misinformation mean that current countermeasures often fall short. As a result, investing in media literacy education is an essential part of the equation. While it won’t stop the creation of false content, empowering the public with critical thinking skills is essential for challenging and resisting misinformation.
As regulatory control continues to play catch-up with technological innovation, the battle against misinformation in elections will continue, demanding ongoing watchfulness and an adaptive response. And at the end of the day, protecting electoral integrity relies on the public’s ability to critically analyse and question the information they encounter online.
- Data & AI
